BB, I tend to mostly end up short in that rough about a yard or 2 from the green. I've hit that shot enough times that I feel confident that I can put it almost as close as the wedge from the lay up. I'd say the dispersion is a yard further at most. While my birdie percentage is weak, I tend not to miss very short or long for that matter on the 2nd shot.
I'd say I might end up long 20% of the time and like you said might make par 50% of those. I make bogey more often than birdie by a longshot, but if I lay up and don't put it closer than I could from that rough I feel like I'm not even giving myself a chance. Now if I miss the approach badly then sure it gets dicey as I'm probably looking at bogey if not a snowman.
I did fail to mention that I might not play it in overall high wind conditions, not just a headwind. I also had been using my Rapture V2 Pro 3W which is very difficult to miss by more than a millimeter. I recently switched to the G10 with anticipation of further switching to the i15, so maybe I'll feel differently the more I continue the play the hole with the faster metered 3W causing harsher misses on mishits. I know that I've had more difficulty threading the needle between those 2 bunkers on 11 at Kiawah since the switch.
Whether if I go for it or lay up it's probably only minor percentage difference anyways in average score. Let's say an estimated average score of 4.4 compared to 4.5. Who knows, maybe its greater and I'm blowing smoke up my own ass.
I tend not to go for the bunker but that's just me. From your post I guess your saying that you chose to lay up on the fairway for the 3rd or do you toss it in the bunker on purpose?
SP, brevity is definitely not my strong suit with the written word which has been both a blessing and a curse as I've always had to edit down everything I've constructed. I guess at least I mostly used proper grammar, paragraphs, and believe I spelled everything correctly...........hopefully. :) Sorry that it offends you so.
Smason, I don't have disdain for you I was just confused before as to why you wasted our time with those threads yet didn't explain yourself further. I was willing to listen to any proof you had to offer and give the information a fair shake. I just felt you were playing a 3-card Monte yet weren't showing the queen. Maybe you had no facts and were just being a douche bag. I know I've been a douche at times even if I wouldn't quite take it to those epic proportions. Either way, I'm also certainly not above helping someone else no matter what the case. Even if my advice is proven to be paper-mache. :) You're welcome.