If I were to go for the green, I'd have about a 10% par chance, 70% bogey, and 20% double bogey.
But if I were to lay up, I'd have about 20% par chance, 30% bogey, and 50% double bogey (if 3rd shot is unlucky it wouldn't trickle down the slope, leaving a guaranteed 3-putt).
I often choose to lay up because for going for the green, sometimes it can result in an easy chip and sometimes it results in an impossible chip. I'd use 100% backspin when laying up.