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Wed, Mar 25 2020 6:09 AM (173 replies)
  • SimonTheBeetle
    3,511 Posts
    Mon, Mar 16 2020 6:23 PM
    The Decennial Cycles of Financial Crisis
     
    1987
    Black Monday, then Early 1990s Recession + Japanese Asset Price Bubble
    1997
    Asian Financial Crisis
    2008
    Subprime Mortgage Crisis
     
    2020
    Now COVID-19, a pandemic disease all of a sudden spreading this fast all over the world?!  Another huge crisis at the centennial point of Depression of 1920-21, the economic recession following the end of WWI Wall Street Crash & Great Depression in 1929?? Really? What a helluva coincidence!
  • Miantiao
    401 Posts
    Mon, Mar 16 2020 7:33 PM

    SimonTheBeetle:
    Now COVID-19, a pandemic disease all of a sudden spreading this fast all over the world?!  A major crisis almost at the centennial point of Wall Street Crash & Great Depression in 1929?? Really? What a helluva coincidence!

    Now we’re really getting into conspiracies...

    There’s a few good ones doing the rounds concerning the Wuhan Pneumonia, some centuries old, some brand new.

    My advice, hold on to stocks if you own them because a little birdy tells me there’s nowhere to go now but up from here, and it may happen sooner than people think.

    The common flu kills roughly the same percentage of those infected. Once people begin to come to terms with this fact there may be a chance of purchasing toilet paper on a regular basis as needed.

    The biggest fallout from this whole episode will be governments rethinking supply of manufactured goods and components, particularly pharmaceuticals and their precursor chemicals which are mostly based in China. The world can’t rely on one nation for their manufactured goods.

    Tarrifs are here to stay, and corporations will need to rethink the strategy of putting all their eggs in one basket chasing the proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

    Governments will begin to pass national security legislation ensuring adequate manufacturing of certain goods essential to national security and the well being of citizens be manufactured in their own countries.

    The sad part in all this is that it has taken a viral pandemic for people to wake up.  

     

    .

  • Robert1893
    7,673 Posts
    Mon, Mar 16 2020 8:32 PM

    I really don't see much of a coincidence. Over the last almost 40  years, one can point to any number of financial crises. Their occurrence is not rare.

    And since we're still 9 and a half years out from the centennial point you reference, I just don't see how that could be termed a coincidence. That's a pretty big margin to define a coincidence. 

  • SimonTheBeetle
    3,511 Posts
    Mon, Mar 16 2020 8:44 PM

    That's why I said "almost", Robert. If it occurred exactly every 10 years, 100 years or 1,000 years, it'd be called a definite cycle.

  • Robert1893
    7,673 Posts
    Mon, Mar 16 2020 8:58 PM

    But you left out any number of financial crises. And "almost" really doesn't save it. 

    Here's the thing: by giving yourself almost 10 years of wiggle room, you're (in essence) giving yourself a 20-year window. Logic dictates that 10 years after would apply as well. If it doesn't count after, then it doesn't count before.

    The probability that some financial crisis would happen within that 20-year window would be very high. Even if one rejects the "10-year after" rule, there was bound to be some type of financial correction that would take place. Just nothing coincidental about it. 

  • Miaski0
    88 Posts
    Mon, Mar 16 2020 9:17 PM

    Robert1893:

    But you left out any number of financial crises. And "almost" really doesn't save it. 

    Here's the thing: by giving yourself almost 10 years of wiggle room, you're (in essence) giving yourself a 20-year window. Logic dictates that 10 years after would apply as well. If it doesn't count after, then it doesn't count before.

    The probability that some financial crisis would happen within that 20-year window would be very high. Even if one rejects the "10-year after" rule, there was bound to be some type of financial correction that would take place. Just nothing coincidental about it. 

    Holy nerd Batman.

  • SimonTheBeetle
    3,511 Posts
    Mon, Mar 16 2020 9:47 PM

    Boy, you're really in the mood for this, aren't you? LOL Okay, FTFY and a real major crisis coming soon by 2030. LOL Cheers, Robert.

  • Tony08888
    568 Posts
    Tue, Mar 17 2020 3:02 AM

    We've averaged a recession about every four years—but that doesn't mean they occur like clockwork. There was a boom and bust cycle with recessions and expansions almost equal in length in the 20th Century.

     

    Coincidence? No, economics.

  • Robert1893
    7,673 Posts
    Tue, Mar 17 2020 5:38 AM

    SimonTheBeetle:

    Boy, you're really in the mood for this, aren't you? LOL Okay, FTFY and a real major crisis coming soon by 2030. LOL Cheers, Robert.

    Literally, I have no idea what that means. 

    This is a discussion board. I was discussing. That's about all I was doing.  

  • Robert1893
    7,673 Posts
    Tue, Mar 17 2020 5:39 AM

    Tony08888:

    We've averaged a recession about every four years—but that doesn't mean they occur like clockwork. There was a boom and bust cycle with recessions and expansions almost equal in length in the 20th Century.

    Coincidence? No, economics.

    +1

    Well said. 

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