Forums

TO WEDGE PUTT or NOT TO WEDGE PUTT ?

• Mythanatos 2,203 Posts

  Wed, Feb 6 2019 10:31 PM

  in general you're looking at it wrongly. 

   

  the only thing that matters is total strokes.

  if i am consistently in the top 10 of RGs I'm going to finish in the top three here or there and win here or there.

  What is generally the difference in a RG tournament.? It's often 1 stroke. How much is the winnings difference between 1 and 2?

   

  So if im having  a good round and dammit i mis hit a ball and im in the one freaking place on that green i don't want to be. due to slope. elevation, break, no putting line to the pin,  champ greens etc the type of place where I'm probably going to three putt this thing it's such a bad spot. 

    so i pull out a wedge and stop it within a foot of the hole. straight line *(some wind effect but minimal), no break problems except 0-4 inches when it lands, carry it over whatever trouble i didnt like, etc etc maybe i even hole the thing which happens a lot more with a wedge from distance than a putter.

  but i lets say i save par and move to the next hole. i end up with a 58 and second place has a 59 and there are maybe 3 guys with 59s so that money is getting divided.   I mean you have to be good enough to put yourself in that position.. but it can be worth a spot or two here or there in a golf tourney. because there are times when it's worth a stroke or two. certainly not every round. but it does matter here or there.

• TopShelf2010 10,881 Posts

  Thu, Feb 7 2019 2:29 AM

  .

• Robert1893 7,669 Posts

  Thu, Feb 7 2019 6:56 AM

  Mythanatos:

  in general you're looking at it wrongly. 

  the only thing that matters is total strokes.

  If this is directed at me, that's exactly what I'm looking at.

  In other words, the models could be constructed in two different ways. If one wanted to estimate probabilities, then it would be conceptualized the way listed below and one would estimate a logistic regression model:
  
  y is a binary variable with it be defined as whether the player won or lost

  0 = lost (i.e. anything other than 1st place); 1 = first place

  x variables include (at a minimum) the following

  • wedge used on green or not (conceptualizing it as a binary variable is the most efficient approach
  • skill of player (could use monthly ranking in earnings or overall earnings)
  • average of last 10 scores on that course
  • number of rounds played on that course in one month prior to event (or one could use a different time frame)
  • number of rounds played overall in month prior
  • quality of clubs (could simply calculate overall quality based on levels of clubs)

  Most likely, there are other salient independent variables that could be included in the model. Those are just off the top of my head as are the variables' characteristics.
  
  Then get a decent sample of all ready gos and input the data. Obviously, getting all this data is virtually impossible.
  
  A second approach would be use the same independent variables and simply use the actual score for the dependent variable.
  
  So y = actual score; x variables remain the same. I think you could run an OLS regression without violating the assumptions to the point that the results are biased.
  
  Of course, with OLS regression you don't get probabilities like you do with logistic regression (above),. But you'd be able to determine which variables are significant and what the effect size is for each.
  
  Regardless, both models (in different ways) is looking at the overall score.

• el3n1 4,495 Posts

  Thu, Feb 7 2019 8:27 AM

  #Robert all the "theory" in the world doesn't help you if you do not have any experiential data or record of win rate, profit loss margins, and the impact of a particular shot in heavy wind ready go's on C13 greens or faster.  Even if you collect all the data from other players, you would have to watch their actual rounds played to see whether the shot would make a difference in any of those rounds.  The data alone doesn't tell the whole story.... 

  There are topics I would potentially seek your advice on, but in this case you keep trying to dissuade people who have the practical experience of participating in Ready Go's that your scoring history shows absolutely no history of.  It doesn't mean you can't have an opinion, but it is just that, your opinion.  But, in this case, I would defer to the experience of others who have shown participation and knowledge and experience in seeing the potential effect in Ready Go's.  As a result, I trust their opinion and experience above what you have tried to share...

  Sorry, since you seem intent to beat this dead horse, I felt I needed to be a little more blunt.  It does not mean I do not value you, your contributions to TPC, the forum, or WGT, but in this case you simply appear to be trying to antagonize or dissuade others of valid views based on their knowledge and experience in actually playing Ready Go's, while offering no detailed concrete facts of your own but merely conjecture and hypotheticals.  

  Please know, I leave you with respect and admiration, but you may be coming off the wrong way here and I know you to be far more thoughtful and considerate than that.  

• Robert1893 7,669 Posts

  Thu, Feb 7 2019 10:40 AM

  @el3n1
  
  First, I'm not trying to dissuade anyone. I really don't care what others believe or don't believe. I'm simply explaining where I'm coming from. If you took it as me attempting to dissuade you or anyone else, then you clearly don't know me.
  
  Second, data are not theory. And with enough data, you get a really good idea of what the story is. A properly specified model will explain a whole lot of variance. I hate to be blunt as well. I'm sorry you don't understand the concept of regression models, but I'm correct. 
  
  Third, what I'm suggesting is aggregating experience into a dataset. You know what experience is... it's data. And if you aggregate enough data, it can be properly analyzed.
  
  Fourth, anecdotal data that relies on memory of what happened is notoriously unreliable. For example, anyone involved in law enforcement will tell you that eyewitness testimony is some of the most unreliable. Besides having the possibility of confirmation bias, people will simply remember incorrectly. Additionally, they'll cherry pick their data. Just think about the last round you played. How many shots do you remember? Now, think of a round you played a week ago. How many of those shots and conditions that the shots were made in do you remember?
  
  Fifth, no one has actually posted that they have systematically scored better in a ready go because they were able to use a wedge on a green in a specific situation. Relatedly, no one has said they believe they won a ready go because of being able to use a wedge or (alternatively) feel they lost a ready go because they got stuck in a situation in which a wedge on the green would have been a better option. Or if they did, I don't recall those posts.
  
  All people have suggested are hypothetical scenarios that could potentially take place. I don't recall anyone stating any of those scenarios actually did take place. 
  
  Nevertheless, I'll play along some more. How does a ready go round differ from any other ranked round? Do they play different courses I'm unaware of? Do they have different winds, tees, green speeds that do not occur in regular ranked rounds?
  
  In other words, what's qualitatively different about them from regular ranked rounds that makes experience playing them so important to understanding if the wedge advantage translates into a moderate or high probability that a person is more likely to win or place higher in the ready go?
  
  And again, I never stated that the wedge on the green in the mobile platform does not provide an advantage. For the love of Christmas! I have even termed it the "wedge advantage" or something similar. 
  
  My point is about the level of probability that the wedge advantage will actually make a difference, when all other factors are held constant. In some round, it will. In the overwhelming majority of rounds, it won't.
  
  It's the other factors that will make the difference. In the aggregate, the most important factors will be skill, course knowledge, and a bit of luck (i.e getting favorable winds). That's my point. 
  
  If people don't believe that's correct, that's fine. I don't care if people choose to be wrong.
  
  I'm just kidding! Well... half kidding. :-) 
  
  
  
  
  

• Mythanatos 2,203 Posts

  Thu, Feb 7 2019 12:06 PM

  TopShelf2010:

  Mythanatos:

  if i am consistently in the top 10 of RGs I'm going to finish in the top three here or there and win here or there

  Wow... sounds like someone is due for a promotion.

   

  Don

  ive heard that for 1.5 years. but i don't play ranked rounds as much as most,  due to my mobile habit.

  and i generally avoid red tee tourneys. So it takes a while. I've never worried too much about tier.

• Mythanatos 2,203 Posts

  Thu, Feb 7 2019 12:17 PM

  @robert 

  theoretically if all the other factors remain constant then the only question is does a wedge on a green with backspin save any strokes for the person that uses it.

  I can answer you that here or there it has kept me in a 2nd or third place instead of dropping 1-5 spots (ties). Has it enabled me to win?

  I don't think i used a wedge shot on a green in my last two wins. but i was also really drunk that night. so may have and just not remember it.

  Bottom line as i said, it saves me a stroke here or there. that's the only thing that matters. a stroke here or there is going to make me credits in a RG. 

• Kenher01 1,151 Posts

  Thu, Feb 7 2019 1:45 PM

  Mythanatos:

   

  Bottom line as i said, it saves me a stroke here or there. that's the only thing that matters. a stroke here or there is going to make me credits in a RG. 

  Hi Mythanatos,

                           As you are speaking from experience of It saving you a stroke here or there (I can certainly see how It could) & earlier on a previous page I gave extreme examples of where It could be used It got me thinking about non-extreme examples where I thought that If I played through the Mobile platform I'd use It (FBS wedge on green)

  Say If I were to get out of position on any on the many greens at Kiawah & leave myself a mid-range putt that has only have two camera views & both are badly skewed, I'd probably just take out my wedge & hit It.

  Sticking with Kiawah & again with a mid-range putt that has say a lot of break at the feet, Straightens out mid way & then breaks again at the hole I can picture myself taking out the wedge & only worrying about the last 1/2 a yd & cos of the BS I If I miss-ding/miss holing It I don't have to worry about It getting away from me & missing the return putt.

  Just curious, Looking for your opinion on the above from the point of view of someone who wields It (FBS  Wedge) Would you (Maybe you have) use the FBS Wedge In those situations (I know I would) & kudos to you If you do for using all the clubs at your disposal, It's like having a 15th club In the bag

  Ken

• el3n1 4,495 Posts

  Thu, Feb 7 2019 2:15 PM

  #ken - I agree with #Myth but I would have to picture the putt on Kiawah... and if it did arise, I would say it would need to be C14 greens or more to be a factor... While Kiawah greens seem to have some funny breaks you are not in nearly as many dangerous potential 3 putt positions as other courses… but again, I haven't putted Kiawah much in C14 speeds.

  I felt your examples of Chambers were very plausible and C13 or C14 greens would dramatically alter how you can approach the driveable par 4 in a tail wind.

  I can't remember if it was a ready go, random tourn or the VT event last month but I recall having a dreaded putt on that hole... I took the smart play and thought I was laying up with 3 wd but it carried onto the front of the green.  That isn't a bad spot unless you also catch the right slope that prevents a good line to the hole... then it is a very tricky putt... the wedge would be perfect for that... however, I tried to putt using the slopes but not nearly as well.

  I did watch the most amazing putt I have ever seen by Fmagnets on that hole by actually throwing the ball onto the back slope well beyond the pin and letting it funnel back to the hole for a lag putt birdie... Most creative thing I ever saw, took him nearly 3 minutes of his 12 minute round to think it thru before hitting it... a wedge putt could be done in a fraction of the time and much easier and done by about anyone... I would wager more like a handful of people would have pulled off the same putt as Mags... so it alters how the game is played without a doubt!