Hi,
OK - 30 yds short - 30 / 40% rough. A flop is not gonna get you there !! If you have a gale behind you maybe, or better clubs - yes ?? Ideally you want to land your second shot in the rough just short of the green on the left hand approach - over the left hand traps. Or layup just short of the green on that left hand side - (if you can get there with your second) then flop it close.
So you're gonna have to go with something like a 60 Wg. Dont forget this green is way above the fairway maybe 14 - 16ft 30 yards out? So you have to do a bit of practicing there - you need a lot more power.
However heres a tip to get you started. Try 60Wg - no backspin, approx 70% power - then go from there. With all these types of shots you MUST record your outcomes and then modify your shot next time around. Again record your shot - and again adjust next time around - and so on.
One thing you dont want to do on this hole is go over the back !! It is almost impossible to get anywhere near coming from behind the green - it has a huge downhill slope.
Dont forget - practice makes perfect.
Good luck
Cheers Doug