You know, psychology plays a big part in this game, both online and in RL.
If your mind is focused on the water (or the rough, or OB, or on the sand trap), guess where the ball is very likely going to go. Even worse is mentally pre-visualizing your ball going into the water.
Yaaaaa, okay... LoL
IRL ya, most definitely +1000 If you're somewhat new to the game and you think you're going to dig your wedge into the dirt, most of the time yep, you're walking away with your hand buzzing. Once you know your clubs, it's almost hard to do that, muscle-memory being what it is. Oddly water never really bothers me, I don't really think about it, for me it's the bunker, something about the color or something. Not so bad on cloudy days as everything has a washed hue to it, on bight sunny days you look out, set up and the contrast with the between dark green and bright white locks in. You look at the ball and you brain can still see the image of that bright white 'target'. Takes some extra effort some days.
But that's real golf - This is a mediocre representation of the game and isn't subject to any of that. The only factor even remotely comes close is your brain locking onto the thought of missing the ding early or late. Which it will, as just happened to me not 30 mins ago on CCC 218yrd, 8mph l-r wind, I moved arrow for a 15mph wind, missed ding by about a bar late = ball in water. I wasn't actively thinking about missing, just didn't over compensate enough. Even still the way the game seems to be playing, I could have been dead on and it might have still drilled my ball in the water, which has happened lot of times. I mean how many times you hit perfectly, aim, setup shot dead on and the ball sails it the rough, or water? You're not thinking about any of that. This game has too many interferences to even be bothered worrying about water. If it's that ball's 'time' then its going swimming.
Water doesn't really have any affect on this game, at least I'd be willing to bet no one coded in thermal influence properties of water into this game.....