VanHalenLover: 160 yards out hole is 12' downhill and there is a 12mph headwind
Depends on the slope of the green. I'd say 163 would be a good start.
VanHalenLover: I've been using the 50% rule, which works sometimes, others it seems way off.
12' downhill x 50% = 6 (subtract 6 yds from the shot) = 154
12 mph headwind x 50% = 6 (add 6 yds back on to shot) = 160
It's not a bad start, but some simple logic would tell you that if the shot is short, then height changes, whether they are up or down, will affect your shot less because a short shot is falling almost straight down by the end of the shot, whereas a long shot (in neutral wind) will drop at about 45-degrees.
Wind also affects long shots more, no matter if it is a headwind or a tailwind, and tailwinds barely affect short shots under 50 yards.
Here's some examples and my guesses... first yardage listed is the difference the height would make to a neutral-wind shot.... +/- in parenthesis after the wind-adjusted yardage is the difference from neutral wind (i.e. 0 wind) that the wind condition made.
210 yards, 30 ft down -> 198 yards (-12 yards)
16 mph tailwind? 186 yards (-12)
12 mph tailwind? 189 yards (-9)
12 mph headwind? 209 yards (+11)
16 mph headwind? 215 yards (+17)
120 yards, 30 ft down -> 116 yards (-5)
16 mph tailwind? 110 yards (-6)
12 mph tailwind? 112 yards (-4)
12 mph headwind? 123 yards (+7)
16 mph headwind? 125 yards (+9)
160 yards, 30 ft up-> 174 yards (+14)
16 mph tailwind? 168 yards (-6)
12 mph tailwind? 170 yards (-4)
12 mph headwind? 181 yards (+7)
16 mph headwind? 184 yards (+10)
120 yards, 30 ft up -> 127 yards (+7)
16 mph tailwind? 122 yards (-5)
12 mph tailwind? 124 yards (-3)
12 mph headwind? 131 yards (+4)
16 mph headwind? 133 yards (+6)
Again, these are just guesses.
These will be affected by whether or not coming up short is bad or not., and also the slope of the green.
Also important is how hard you hit the club. A 100% swing with a club will be in the air longer than a 90% swing with the club above it. The 100% swing will also create more backspin.