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Ready Go Prediction Tool

• ComplexP 250 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 11:22 AM

  I am looking to start the Ready Go tournaments soon and wanted to get a feel for what to expect in terms of win/losses and what it would mean for my credits. I ended up creating these spreadsheets which I have found very useful and now would like to share with you all.

  You can change any of the cells in the blue boxes:

  • Starting credits
  • Associated winnings at certain scores (assumption required)
  • Your scoring probability distribution (be honest with yourself!)

  So for example, taking the 9 hole version, I have set it up for Kiawah and made the assumption that a score of 33 would break even and 32 would start to make credits (this seems fair based on most of the results I have seen). I then made the assumption that, based on my game, I have the following chances of scoring:

  29 - 0%

  30 - 0%

  31 - 10%

  32 - 40%

  33 - 20%

  34 - 10%

  35 - 10%

  36 - 10%

  37 - 0%

  38 - 0%

  Since Excel randomises every time I change anything I can keep seeing how many credits I would get under different conditions based on the probabilities I have input. Please note that this will not create a perfect spread based on the probability distributions but in general it should be weighted by the numbers you choose.

  9 Hole Version

  http://www.mediafire.com/?2xnmdvwtn2m

  18 Hole Version

  http://www.mediafire.com/?ld4zminfrk2

  Enjoy seeing what happens under different circumstances. Note: I have saved these files in Excel 2003 format.

  ComplexP

• werksux 241 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 11:37 AM

  Nice job making those but it seems like a lot of work, you could have just asked approx what scores does it take to profit from RG's and the concensus would be around these #'s:

  KI: 8-9 under for 18, 4-5 for 9

  BPB: 6-7 under for 18, 3-4 for 9

  STA: about the same as KI with the exception that the 9 hole avg's will be a bit higher due to the heavy winds.

  I'm also betting once Oak has RG's their numbers will be fairly consistent with BPB.

  Also the 18 tourneys are easier to get paid on many times just b/c fewer people play the long ones for the same payout.

  If you can shoot around those scores fairly consistent you will profit.  The more consistent you get the more likely you are to bang out those 6-9 under scores per 9 and really start profitting heavily from them.

• ComplexP 250 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 11:45 AM

  werksux:

  Nice job making those but it seems like a lot of work, you could have just asked approx what scores does it take to profit from RG's and the concensus would be around these #'s:

  Indeed I could have but I wanted to know what would happen if I didn't consistently get those scores. How many poor rounds can I put in before it starts to cost me money etc.

  Thanks for the general advice though, it is appreciated.

• werksux 241 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 11:49 AM

  True, guess the only way to inject personal performanc into it is exactly what you did.  I stand corrected.

• YankeeJim 25,827 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 11:49 AM

  ComplexP:

  Indeed I could have but I wanted to know what would happen if I didn't consistently get those scores. How many poor rounds can I put in before it starts to cost me money etc.

  You need to hook up with lvietri-he's insane with the tracking. :-)

  http://wgt.com/forums/t/9957.aspx?PageIndex=2   (scroll down)

• marioh 1,055 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 12:14 PM

  Best advice I can give to a person who's going to start playing the RG's with limited credits is to never withdraw, always finish, and never give up on a round that's gone awry.

  Most of the times, you can typically get half your 100cr investment back.

• ComplexP 250 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 12:24 PM

  marioh:

  Best advice I can give to a person who's going to start playing the RG's with limited credits is to never withdraw, always finish, and never give up on a round that's gone awry.

  Most of the times, you can typically get half your 100cr investment back.

  Sounds like good advice to me. Thanks.

• ComplexP 250 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 12:27 PM

  YankeeJim:

  ComplexP:

  Indeed I could have but I wanted to know what would happen if I didn't consistently get those scores. How many poor rounds can I put in before it starts to cost me money etc.

  You need to hook up with lvietri-he's insane with the tracking. :-)

  http://wgt.com/forums/t/9957.aspx?PageIndex=2   (scroll down)

  Yep, that would be theory vs real life. I personally find real life far too complicated :)

• b0geybuster 2,574 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 1:14 PM

  I used to play a lot of them, no mostly just the ones at St.Andrews.  I will tell you that it is not for the faint at heart.  LOL.   Here is a couple weeks of my ready go stats.

  

  I hope this helps.

  Cheers

• tiffer67 1,764 Posts

  Wed, Jun 16 2010 4:33 PM

  I have played in the region of 800 Ready Gos, I really am that sad. For anyone who is contemplating playing in them that does not regulary shoot -3/4 over 9 holes without difficulty and -6/7 over 18, be prepared to lose money initially. There is definitely a sharp learning curve to go through due to the increased pressure you put yourself under. It took me over 100 attempts before I won one, now I have over 20 wins.

  I have recorded my scores on a spreadsheet and my average position is 9.55, which sees me in profit and credits accumulating. We all want to win them but my advice is not to be too hard on yourself chasing the elite, they really are consistently brilliant in these tournaments. My other observation on them is that playing the back 9 on Kiawah is pretty much a waste of time right now. Unless you start with 3 birdies you can pretty much kiss goodbye to a decent pay out.

  Try them, stick at them and I guarantee your game will improve over time ;^)