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RE-scoring average

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Tue, Apr 6 2021 3:01 AM (14 replies)
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  • stevie1026
    171 Posts
    Sun, Apr 4 2021 12:15 PM

    My long slog to make champion, delayed by WGT by inability to get ranked rounds for a few months has begun again. my avg. is 59.24...I have a 28 on best of famous and a 29 at pebble recently yet my average didn't lower. Is there an explanation for this?  Stevie

  • Robert1893
    6,772 Posts
    Sun, Apr 4 2021 5:56 PM

    Depending on what score your 28 and 29 replaced, it's very possible that your average wouldn't move due to rounding. 

    Once you're saturated, there's two things that work against you. The first is, for Tour Legend, you have 750 rounds the average is based on

    The second is you will slowly have less dispersion of scores because you're eliminating the top scores, while there being a natural floor for your low scores. (By natural floor, I mean most players will rarely score below 28 for 9 holes.)  

    One way to think about it is that when you first saturate, a 29 might be replacing a score of 36 or higher. You will soon run out of those scores to replace. At some point a 29 will probably be replacing a 31. For the first example, you're shaving off 7 strokes; for the second, only 2 strokes have been shaved off.   

    Edited for accuracy. See comments below.

  • SamSpayed
    3,074 Posts
    Sun, Apr 4 2021 10:09 PM

    He's a Tour Legend trying to reach Champion.  Saturation for TL is 750 ranked rounds, not 1,000.

  • bossbird
    1,124 Posts
    Sun, Apr 4 2021 11:55 PM

    Does best of famous count on average ? As it’s a mix of holes from all the courses 

  • alosso
    20,268 Posts
    Mon, Apr 5 2021 2:12 AM

    bossbird:
    Does best of famous count on average ? As it’s a mix of holes from all the courses

    Yes it does, like all courses with Pars between 60 and 80 ;)

    Only Par3s and Par5s are excluded.

  • alosso
    20,268 Posts
    Mon, Apr 5 2021 2:30 AM

    stevie1026:
    my avg. is 59.24...I have a 28 on best of famous and a 29 at pebble recently yet my average didn't lower. Is there an explanation for this?
    This probably falls under the "law of the big number", it depends on the number of your TL rounds - any hint to that? Are you saturated yet?

    Let me take a guess and suppose you had 600 TL rounds under your belt.

    28 is 56 towards the average, and 29 is 58. The difference to your current average is -3.24 and -1.24, respectively.

    Thus, -3.24 / 600 = -0.0051 may be the change from the better round, and
    -1.24 / 600 = -0.002 from the other.

    Neither of these would be visible in your web profile without further low scores supporting. As a hint, the average display in the app has three decimals!

     

    The other possible explanation is that these vg scores are mixed into quite a lot of 30/60 and higher scores. Before saturation, these higher scores would push the average up again ever so slightly...

  • DodgyPutter
    3,901 Posts
    Mon, Apr 5 2021 4:58 AM

    stevie1026:

    My long slog to make champion, delayed by WGT by inability to get ranked rounds for a few months has begun again. my avg. is 59.24...I have a 28 on best of famous and a 29 at pebble recently yet my average didn't lower. Is there an explanation for this?  Stevie

    The first thing to establish is are you saturated? If not your average should in fact be going up with your recent scores.  The 28/56 for example was surrounded by 33/66's so the average for the three rounds was 62.63.  Your general scores would indicate this is close to your recent average.

    As you've not mentioned your average going up, and looking at your average and scores, I think you are saturated.  That changes things from alosso's calculations.  A saturated average replaces the worst score with any one better than it.  As you must have as least 30/60's included any score of 59 or lower will be lowering it whether this is visible or not.

    An average of 59.24 over 750 rounds includes 44,430 strokes if you scored 58 and your highest remaining score is 60 it would then be 44,428 strokes and 59.2373, therefore still shown as  59.24.

    You need an average of 59 which would be 44,250 strokes so basically you need to get rid of 180 from your current total.  It will happen slowly but it will happen.  

     

  • alosso
    20,268 Posts
    Mon, Apr 5 2021 5:19 AM

    DodgyPutter:
    I think you are saturated.
    Maybe a good guess, with another set of assumptions.

    On a second view, next to the 29, there is a 58 counting as much, but these are three below 60 among 20+ above...

    Either way, the average variation probably stays below visibility.

  • Robert1893
    6,772 Posts
    Mon, Apr 5 2021 5:43 AM

    SamSpayed:

    He's a Tour Legend trying to reach Champion.  Saturation for TL is 750 ranked rounds, not 1,000.

    Sorry about that. I misread his post and didn't take time to look closely at his profile. I read that he was at champion tier rather than trying to make champion. And I didn't take the time to think through the averages needed to make each tier. 

    With my eyes the way they are, I can miss whole words or simply misread words, unless I really take the time to read very closely. Sometimes, I need to move my laptop to within a few inches to read stuff. 

    In any case, the same analysis holds for 750 rounds.  

  • stevie1026
    171 Posts
    Mon, Apr 5 2021 8:17 AM

    Thank you to all of you for your responses....I should have stated that I am indeed saturated,(for the second time), being a probably not even "average" player, my -7 and -8`s (for 9)  don't come often which is why I was curious.  Thank you....stevie

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