here is the rule tibbets and i use:
u dont care how much to the whole after 1st drive. it's not important. here is what is important.
how much your 1st shor on #2 (drive carried) before it fell/rolled) when you use max backspin
it can be 195-225
anything 215+ u can get to 3rd green from 280 (there are rare exceptions though)
anything 205 below, u can get from 270 over... so it tells u exactly why u fail often times:)
before, i had 195 carry and 270 to the hole. doesnt matter, u aint getting over