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wind Calculator

Sat, Apr 25 2020 2:10 AM (87 replies)
  • climatic
    183 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 5:32 AM

    +1

  • Robert1893
    6,052 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 6:47 AM

    WaLk0fLiFe:
    No offense but why would anyone trust your wind advice when you have been here since 2012, can't break 60 and have an average distance to pin of 15ft?


    While I don't disagree with your overall point, to be fair, the average distance to the pin stat is one of the least informative and most easily skewed stat of any that are provided to us. 

    I have many sub-30 rounds (for 9 holes and from the tips) where my average distance was over 20 feet. And I have had very mediocre rounds where my average distance was less than 10 feet. 

    The number can be skewed by a single hole. And the average distance doesn't take into consideration where you left the ball in relationship to the hole. As I'm sure you know, put yourself in the wrong spot on some holes, you would rather be 30 feet away (or maybe even off the green) than 5 feet. 

  • WaLk0fLiFe
    279 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 7:05 AM

    All I can say in response is I rarely if ever have seen see the top guys with more than 12ft avg distance. Take that for what you will.

  • Robert1893
    6,052 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 7:38 AM

    WaLk0fLiFe:
    All I can say in response is I rarely if ever have seen see the top guys with more than 12ft avg distance. Take that for what you will.


    I get that. And in the aggregate over time, the numbers will eventually work out. But that takes place over a lot of time and many rounds. In the meantime, I don't know that I would use that number to evaluate how a person is currently playing.

    Moreover, one of the things the top players do is play all the courses. On some courses, it's a lot easier to hit it close to the pin and have lower numbers.

    For example, when I first played on here (and even through tiering up), I played St. Andrews a lot. I would guess that well over 40% of my rounds were on that course, with the overwhelming majority being the front 9.

    Well, on the 5th hole, I eventually got to the point that I could get on the green in two and two-putt from almost anywhere on the green, regardless of how far I was from the pin. So, I didn't worry if I ended up 50 feet away. I knew I still had an excellent shot at birdie and an outside shot at eagle. 

    So, my point is that the number can be skewed by a single hole as well as the course one plays (if the person plays the same course a lot). I simply see too many people place way too great of a emphasis on that single number. 

    Finally, as you mentioned, those are the top players. By definition, they'll have excellent stats all the way around. I'm just saying that a person can be a very good to excellent player with a fairly average number for distance to the pin. 

    I really enjoy your posts. Play well!

  • Jimbog1964
    8,364 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 8:41 AM

    WaLk0fLiFe:
    since 2012, can't break 60 and have an average distance to pin of 15ft?

    Details..........

    I do wish the OP well in the greater scheme of putting this and other calcs together as do you:)

  • MainzMan
    9,582 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 11:32 AM

    WaLk0fLiFe:

    All I can say in response is I rarely if ever have seen see the top guys with more than 12ft avg distance. Take that for what you will.

    I absolutely agree with you on this.  When I look at a player's stats then average to pin is how I best judge them.  There are other stats that say a lot about a player but, for me, average to pin is king.

  • MainzMan
    9,582 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 12:00 PM

    Robert1893:

    Well, on the 5th hole, I eventually got to the point that I could get on the green in two and two-putt from almost anywhere on the green, regardless of how far I was from the pin. So, I didn't worry if I ended up 50 feet away. I knew I still had an excellent shot at birdie and an outside shot at eagle. 

    I know what you're getting at as well Robert but, when someone comes here with a formula that tells you exactly how far to the side you have to aim I expect them to be getting the ball a bit closer if they want to be taken seriously.

    And while that number can indeed be skewed by approaches such as the one you describe I still think it says a great deal about a player and their ability to read the wind.

     

  • phred952
    2,708 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 12:05 PM

    I have to agree with Robert.  While stats appear to tell the story, they can be misleading since they are cumulative from when you first started playing.  Also playing on a course with very firm greens like St. Andrews, RSG or Pinehurst #2 will effect ADP do to roll out on longer approach shots.  Especially when reaching the Par 5's in 2.  Profile Page Stats do not reflect how someone plays now. 

    I find that most of my shot calculations are correct for distance, usually within 1 yard or so..  Having worked on wind calcs a bit I find my variations for the wind are also improving.  The biggest problem for this dinosaur is execution of the shot with correct swing timing, i.e. hitting near the ding.  No calculator can fix that.  Tracking and comparing your game stats by each round will tell you how well you are playing now.

    Below is an example as an explanation of why ADP is so hard to lower:

    Using my own profile page stats as an example, I have an average of 15 ft to the hole, and have played nearly 1600 ranked rounds.  For 1600 RR, if you assume that 2/3 are 9 holes and 1/3 are 18 holes, the number of holes played would be as follows:

      9 hole rounds  X 1072  =  9648 holes played

    18 hole rounds  X   528  =  9504 holes played

    Total holes played             19152     Multiply by my 15ft ADP =  287,280 ft cumulative ADP

    IF ADP = 12ft, then  19152 X 12 = 229,824 ft  cumulative ADP  for a difference of 57456 ft.

    To get me to 12 ft ADP if I played the same number of rounds and holes then:

      9 hole rounds X 2144  =  19296 holes played

    18 hole rounds X 1056  =  19008 holes played

    Total holes played              38304   Multiply by 12 ft ADP = 459648 ft. cumulative ADP

    459648 -287280 = 172368 ft cumulative ADP for the next 1600 rounds require a  9 ft ADP per round average.

     

    ADP moves so slowly, that in 100 rounds played as above, you play 1197 holes. To drop ADP from 15 ft to 14.176 ft in that 1197 holes, you have to average 1 ft ADP for all 1197 holes (100 rounds).  So ADP is not a good indicator of how well you play now.

    Scoring history is better, but you have to know Tournament conditions.  Normal postd Ranked Rounds will at least be played under conditions comparable with the players current tier.  We all know about Red Tee Tournaments turning the game into a Drive, Pitch and Putt game.  They also will effect ADP.  If you are hitting a wedge to the green on every shot for any hole that is not drivable, except the Par 5's, your numbers will look a lot better.

    The only thing I wonder about is that Deena has not offered any of the programs being worked upon to anyone else to validate the results.  The phrase "Your results may very" comes to mind. 

    Others who have developed wind/distance calculators have shared them with WGT members.  If ones intent is to only enhance their own game, why mention creating the programs in the forum in the first place?  Not a criticism, just an observation and a question.

    phred952

    Edited Note:

    I got a lot of help from others who posted their Wind Calculators in the forum or on their blog.  From Sgt.Bilko, young46, walkoflife, MistressCostette, and gary @ pinseekers just to name a few,  all of them helped me figure out something that works well for me.   i appreciate all you've passed along to anyone who wanted it.

    Jeff 

  • Robert1893
    6,052 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 12:07 PM

    MainzMan:
    but, when someone comes here with a formula that tells you exactly how far to the side you have to aim I expect them to be getting the ball a bit closer if they want to be taken seriously.


    On that, I agree with you 100%.

    It's same thing with the person's chip, pitch, and flop model. In fact, the numbers there are even worse.

    The whole thing has become a parody of itself.  

  • Shyoneclub
    62 Posts
    Mon, Sep 4 2017 12:12 PM

    I guess you need to be one of the ''regulars'' to post here.  Sorry to bother you

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