I have to agree with Robert. While stats appear to tell the story, they can be misleading since they are cumulative from when you first started playing. Also playing on a course with very firm greens like St. Andrews, RSG or Pinehurst #2 will effect ADP do to roll out on longer approach shots. Especially when reaching the Par 5's in 2. Profile Page Stats do not reflect how someone plays now.
I find that most of my shot calculations are correct for distance, usually within 1 yard or so.. Having worked on wind calcs a bit I find my variations for the wind are also improving. The biggest problem for this dinosaur is execution of the shot with correct swing timing, i.e. hitting near the ding. No calculator can fix that. Tracking and comparing your game stats by each round will tell you how well you are playing now.
Below is an example as an explanation of why ADP is so hard to lower:
Using my own profile page stats as an example, I have an average of 15 ft to the hole, and have played nearly 1600 ranked rounds. For 1600 RR, if you assume that 2/3 are 9 holes and 1/3 are 18 holes, the number of holes played would be as follows:
9 hole rounds X 1072 = 9648 holes played
18 hole rounds X 528 = 9504 holes played
Total holes played 19152 Multiply by my 15ft ADP = 287,280 ft cumulative ADP
IF ADP = 12ft, then 19152 X 12 = 229,824 ft cumulative ADP for a difference of 57456 ft.
To get me to 12 ft ADP if I played the same number of rounds and holes then:
9 hole rounds X 2144 = 19296 holes played
18 hole rounds X 1056 = 19008 holes played
Total holes played 38304 Multiply by 12 ft ADP = 459648 ft. cumulative ADP
459648 -287280 = 172368 ft cumulative ADP for the next 1600 rounds require a 9 ft ADP per round average.
ADP moves so slowly, that in 100 rounds played as above, you play 1197 holes. To drop ADP from 15 ft to 14.176 ft in that 1197 holes, you have to average 1 ft ADP for all 1197 holes (100 rounds). So ADP is not a good indicator of how well you play now.
Scoring history is better, but you have to know Tournament conditions. Normal postd Ranked Rounds will at least be played under conditions comparable with the players current tier. We all know about Red Tee Tournaments turning the game into a Drive, Pitch and Putt game. They also will effect ADP. If you are hitting a wedge to the green on every shot for any hole that is not drivable, except the Par 5's, your numbers will look a lot better.
The only thing I wonder about is that Deena has not offered any of the programs being worked upon to anyone else to validate the results. The phrase "Your results may very" comes to mind.
Others who have developed wind/distance calculators have shared them with WGT members. If ones intent is to only enhance their own game, why mention creating the programs in the forum in the first place? Not a criticism, just an observation and a question.
phred952
Edited Note:
I got a lot of help from others who posted their Wind Calculators in the forum or on their blog. From Sgt.Bilko, young46, walkoflife, MistressCostette, and gary @ pinseekers just to name a few, all of them helped me figure out something that works well for me. i appreciate all you've passed along to anyone who wanted it.
Jeff