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Re: VUSO Torrey Pines Qualifier

• JDGHOST 6,768 Posts

  Mon, May 3 2021 4:54 PM

  AnaNikolaj:

  You do know that if the cut is 56, everyone with that score goes through, right? The quallifier is top 156 and ties..

   

  Ahhh that's right .... Well then MAYBE 56 is the number 

   

• BPeterson8256 2,907 Posts

  Mon, May 3 2021 6:12 PM

  Tabarnak777:

  One good way to help yourself is to find the wind direction on the first hole that will determine the best overall wind directions for the rest of the course.

  Are you sure about this? Do you have notes on specific courses and what the first tee wind will mean for all other holes? ..or is this speculation with no verification?

  I ask because I have always been told they are random. I originally asked about it the first time I played Pinehurst in high winds and had direct headwinds on the long par 4 and the par 5 right after it. In the real world, those holes are opposite directions. When I asked about it then, virtually all responses were that each hole was random.

  If all holes are somehow connected, I would love to know the pattern.

• mingos01 3,365 Posts

  Mon, May 3 2021 11:56 PM

  BPeterson8256:

  Tabarnak777:

  One good way to help yourself is to find the wind direction on the first hole that will determine the best overall wind directions for the rest of the course.

  Are you sure about this? Do you have notes on specific courses and what the first tee wind will mean for all other holes? ..or is this speculation with no verification?

  I ask because I have always been told they are random. I originally asked about it the first time I played Pinehurst in high winds and had direct headwinds on the long par 4 and the par 5 right after it. In the real world, those holes are opposite directions. When I asked about it then, virtually all responses were that each hole was random.

  If all holes are somehow connected, I would love to know the pattern.

  Weather van can help...lol

  

• Tabarnak777 168 Posts

  Tue, May 4 2021 4:26 PM

  BPeterson8256:

  Tabarnak777:

  One good way to help yourself is to find the wind direction on the first hole that will determine the best overall wind directions for the rest of the course.

  Are you sure about this? Do you have notes on specific courses and what the first tee wind will mean for all other holes? ..or is this speculation with no verification?

  I ask because I have always been told they are random. I originally asked about it the first time I played Pinehurst in high winds and had direct headwinds on the long par 4 and the par 5 right after it. In the real world, those holes are opposite directions. When I asked about it then, virtually all responses were that each hole was random.

  If all holes are somehow connected, I would love to know the pattern.

  I made some testings about all this and i guess i was too much convinced that such thing existed. But i'm pretty sure that i've seen a ''set'' of winds reappeared at some occasions. Not necessarily in the same order, but under a kind of pattern. With hundreds or thousands of rounds played, maybe it can happen but i wouldn't count on it to predict future winds.

  My english isn't my first language so maybe i wasn't enough precise with my words. I should have checked before or asking if it has been told before, that's for sure.

  So, yes, my bad, it does look random. But in other way i'm not completely sure about being 100% random. But enough randomized to deter a human to find a pattern.

• BPeterson8256 2,907 Posts

  Wed, May 5 2021 9:04 PM

  3 hours to go in the 5th day of the VUSO, and with only 3 spots grace, it looks like the 58s won't make it through day 5. If they do, they will be gone by morning.

  57s are the next to get the boot. There are 83 players at 56 or better. My guess is the 57s will stay under the cut well into next month. I will guess June 20th, but they won't survive until July. 

  With only 38 players at 55 or better, 56 should qualify no sweat.

  There is only one player left in the first 5 pages at 59. That may be gone before I post this.

  JSmithers shot a fantastic 53, still leaving 1irony king of the low scores at Torrey Pines by 2 strokes.

• el3n1 4,494 Posts

  Thu, May 6 2021 10:10 AM

  Interesting thread...

  There are a couple aspects that could alter the cutline due to changes we have seen this past year or so... we have lost some players that passed away, but we have also seen a fair number of highly proficient players either quit or just move on to other things....

  Then again, there are a lot of players who likely on their first couple attempts posted 56 and 57 scores and felt they left shots out there.  As time passes they will more than likely lower their qualifying scores to 55 and lower and 3 -4 dozen will drop to 54 or lower.  

  Some people may just be charting the course before they go out and try to post their best score.  

  With only 1 week into the event of an unlimited play that will last 2 months... I will be surprised if the cut line ends up higher than 55.  

  I believe the last couple years there were anywhere between 80 and just over a 100 scores that fell on the cut line.

  I think it is very possible at a minimum there will be 40 - 60 scores at 54 and lower and once again over 100 scores on a cut line of 55.  If things remain consistent with past qualifiers.

• BPeterson8256 2,907 Posts

  Thu, May 6 2021 10:28 AM

  el3n1:

  As time passes they will more than likely lower their qualifying scores to 55 and lower and 3 -4 dozen will drop to 54 or lower.  

  With only 1 week into the event of an unlimited play that will last 2 months... I will be surprised if the cut line ends up higher than 55.  

  I think it is very possible at a minimum there will be 40 - 60 scores at 54 and lower and once again over 100 scores on a cut line of 55.  If things remain consistent with past qualifiers.

  It will be interesting to see if you are right, but I would bet heavy $$$ that you are wrong. When you look at this course, a perfect no mistake score is 53, and even then you need a favorable wind on #6 for the eagle. Otherwise perfect is 54.

  I will be shocked if the cutline falls below 56. And I will be surprised if there are even a dozen scores below 54. There will always be some hole outs that help a score, but you not only need to hole out, you also still need to play prefect on the other holes to break 53.

  There are currently 40 scores at 55 or better. I don't think that number will get to 156 or even 100.

  Either way though, it amuses me to speculate and it is fun to see what other people think. Thanks for commenting.

  Cheers

• Tabarnak777 168 Posts

  Thu, May 6 2021 3:27 PM

  The 56s players will likely wait until near the end to see if they have to replay or not. There will certainly be a kind of rush during that time. 

  I personnally got lucky with a 55 on my very first try, i hadnt played that course at all(read CTTH) and i got very lucky with 2x 20+ putts!

  But since there is no other way to practice this course for now i will probably try again later ''for fun''.

  With many flash players retired it's kind of easier this time to get the cut. A cut at 55 would have been more doable if this event was set last year.

• BPeterson8256 2,907 Posts

  Sat, May 8 2021 6:29 AM

  BPeterson8256:

  57s are the next to get the boot. There are 83 players at 56 or better. My guess is the 57s will stay under the cut well into next month. I will guess June 20th, but they won't survive until July. 

  What a moron! 😂🤣 June 20?! LOL

  Okay, so 7 days in and that part of my guess is not even going to be close. 104 scores better than 57 already. I doubt 57s will last another week.

  56 still looks solid with only 43 players below that. The course seems to be proving to be somewhat "easy" like some claim. However, with only 3 players below 55 (shadyshot joined this group), the course is also proving difficult to go real low on. 54/55 is a fantastic score!

• TopShelf2010 10,880 Posts

  Sat, May 8 2021 7:01 AM

  BPeterson8256:

  54/55 is a fantastic score!

  Indeed.

  The reasoning behind my original claim of the elite players will destroy this course is this...

  I play with the free Starter ball. And I was able to shoot a 60. That is why I thought those using much better balls would be able to shoot really low.

   

  Don