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QUEST FOR TOUR LEGEND ;) Question ?

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Sat, Jul 8 2017 3:49 AM (22 replies)
  • alosso
    21,028 Posts
    Thu, Jan 12 2017 8:49 AM

    CoolRunningx:

    At  present, playing  stroke  rounds  the  quest  of  dropping  averages

    Can  you  please  answer  this  for  me,  at  present   average dropping down, 

    -8     score     dropping   .6  

    First off, "-8" is a multitude of possible entry numbers to the average, from 52 (a (34)-8 = 26 on nine holes of Par34) to (72) -8 = 64 (on 18 holes of Par72).
    Nobody will be able to tell which impact "-8" has, without further information.

    So, please, refer to raw scores when talking average.

    CoolRunningx:
    dont  think  i  have  reached  the  500  ranked  rounds  yet,  as  loads  were  par 3   brandon  grrrr  (  my  bad  )

    Don't think so, too. From your profile, I see that you may refer to some 28s at KIA, counting as 56s. A change of -.6 from a 68.4 average would mean that you have only about 20 RRs counting - improbable. So I assume that you had a 0.06 drop from 67.87. That would bring you to about 200 RRs for average.

    Calculation: (67.87 - 56) / x = .06,     x = 11.87 / .06 = 198 rounds

    (repeat with denominators of 0.055 and 0.065 for an idea of possible variation)

    CoolRunningx:
    when   i  hit  the  500 and  saturation point,  will  i  see  a  -8   score   dropping  average  say   .10    or  so
    will  i  notice  the  difference  in,  when  i  do  reach  the  500  rounds

    It will be different, much smaller before the saturation, with 500 as denominator instead of 200, then bigger when you cross the line, due to the changes involved when expelling high scores, and smaller and smaller the further your saturated average comes down due to the diminuishing span in scores involved.

    It's a long grind, thus it's more important to keep up the fun than to lurk at the average!

  • DodgyPutter
    4,690 Posts
    Thu, Jan 12 2017 1:12 PM

    Vaibhav5viv:

    CoolRunningx:
    will  i  notice  the  difference  in,  when  i  do  reach  the  500  rounds

    The closer you reach 500 RRs your avg movement would reduce. To give an idea, if you hit 500 rds with an avg of 66, for ur avg to go to 65.9, the difference between your 501st round and the worst rd in 500 has to be 50 shots.

    This is absolutely true, but you should still know when you hit 500 rounds by the impact a good score has, or at least good scores have.

    As I look your average is 67.81 if that was for 300 rr's that would include  20,343 strokes.  If you then scored 28 for a 56 301 rr's would be 20,399 strokes and your average 67.77.   If it was 400 rr's then the same score would take it to 67.78.  

    So as you close on 500 the impact of a good score will (as said above) lessen, but when you hit 500 the effect will increase noticeably.

    If you had just reached saturation with this average it would include 33,905 strokes. A 28/56 would see it drop at least 0.08 to 67.73. This is because your score now replaces your worst ranked one and I see a 46/92 in your score history.

    Your scores are weird in that they are so varied with significant numbers of them in both the 20's and 40's (from 52-92) , so your saturated average will drop more quickly than most folk's would.

    You said something along the lines of currently -8 dropping you .6, I think you mean the 28's at KI and 0.06.  (I now see I'm repeating much of what alosso has said, and his accuracy is more reliable, but this far in I'll finish anyway).  Remember the score in relation to par doesn't matter, this counts as a 56 and was what I used in my examples (300 and 400 rr's) above.  Alosso is almost certainly correct here  The only other, very remote, possibility I can see is that you are saturated and had already replaced the 92.

    Anyway, a slowly lessening effect followed by a jump (or a dive) when you hit saturation.  (who'd be a moderator and have to read all this)  :-/

     

     

  • CoolRunningx
    4,719 Posts
    Thu, Jan 12 2017 10:00 PM

    Wow wow and another wow 

     

    Thanks all for your awesome knowledge, much appreciated 

    defo food for thought

     

    cant thank you enough

    n1

    bob 

  • alosso
    21,028 Posts
    Thu, Jan 12 2017 10:48 PM

    @DP: True, but I fear that CR might suffer from information overload now ;)

    DodgyPutter:
    If you had just reached saturation with this average it would include 33,905 strokes. A 28/56 would see it drop at least 0.08 to 67.73. This is because your score now replaces your worst ranked one and I see a 46/92 in your score history.

    This is a good extra thought, though we'd not be able to judge the 56's impact because we don't know which score was kicked out - the 92 might long be gone.

     

    Would be nice to know the impact of a score above the average, 34 or higher...

  • DodgyPutter
    4,690 Posts
    Fri, Jan 13 2017 2:16 AM

    alosso:
    True, but I fear that CR might suffer from information overload now ;)

    Yes sorry about all the repetition.  I started to reply but didn't finish, when I got back to it I saw you'd covered it but wasn't going to waste all these hard sums :-)

    alosso:
    the 92 might long be gone

    I did get to that in the end, and it would need to be gone for a drop of 0.06 and not 0.08.

    I do think you're almost certainly right (looking at the number of par 3 rounds in his history) that he has played around 200rr's.

  • CoolRunningx
    4,719 Posts
    Mon, Jan 16 2017 11:21 AM

    Hi   Call  me  think  if  ya  want,  but  tried  to  calculate,  with  more  precise  rounds,  and  got  Know where fast,,,

    Is  it  possible  to  check  from  my   rounds   below  a  calculated  guess,  of  how    many  ranked  rounds...

    Appreciated  your  help

    n1

    Bob

     

    COURSE SCORE SCORE

    AVERAGE

    67.30

    rnd 2   back  9 Kiawah -8 28 67.26
    rnd 2   back  9 Kiawah -6 30 67.23
    rnd 2   back  9 Kiawah -9 27 67.18

  • alosso
    21,028 Posts
    Mon, Jan 16 2017 11:13 PM

    Assuming that these are back-to-back rounds and assuming that your average
    ain't saturated yet, you should be between 253 and 274 RRs.

    If it were saturated, you'd have to strip off

    -20 shots from the first score (expelled score of 76 = 38),
    -15 from the second (75 or 37 or 38),
    -15 from the third (69 or 34 or 35).
    (due to rounding the third decimal, scores may vary by 5)

    This would mean that you are just saturated - quite improbable, methinks.

    I'm going with around 260.

  • DodgyPutter
    4,690 Posts
    Tue, Jan 17 2017 4:01 AM

    alosso:
    I'm going with around 260.

    I agree.

    My sums start with you having played 256 rounds before the three listed.

    256 rounds with an average of 67.3 = 17,228.8 strokes

    (Round 257) + 56 = 17,284.8 /257 = 67.256  (67.26)

    (Round 258) +60 = 17,344.8 /58 = 67.228   (67.23)

    (Round 259) +54 = 17,398.8 / 59 = 67.176  (67.18)

    This would mean your round after this would be your 260th.  If you want to check this is roughly right (it's impossible to be absolutely precise, and it's not or you wouldn't have .8 of a shot, for the reasons alosso has given) add your score to the 17,398.8 and divide by 260 and keep doing that when you play RR.

    alosso:

    -20 shots from the first score (expelled score of 76 = 38),
    -15 from the second (75 or 37 or 38),
    -15 from the third (69 or 34 or 35).
    (due to rounding the third decimal, scores may vary by 5)

    This would mean that you are just saturated - quite improbable, methinks.

    On that I agree with the conclusion, but I think he would probably need to be a bit into saturation.  

    He has an odd mix of scores;  these scores (38 etc) are are fair bit lower than at least a dozen in the recent score history (which I now see includes a 54/108).  Bearing in mind many scores on his list are Bop3, if this continued throughout 500 RR's he'd have a lot of big scores to discard.

    As (I think) I said in an earlier reply he'll know when he hits saturation as his average will tumble (relatively) for a while.  Playing a mix of  rg's from windy UEL to no wind easy 9's I've had this happen, although not to the extent he will.

    alosso:
    If it were saturated, you'd have to strip off

    I think that rule only applies to Icon ;-))

     

  • DodgyPutter
    4,690 Posts
    Tue, Jan 17 2017 4:25 AM

    With the round played since, maybe this works better.

    258 prior to the three listed =  17,363.4 strokes

    (Round 259) + 56 = 17,284.4 /259 = 67.256  (67.26)

    (Round 260) +60 = 17,479.4 /260 = 67.228   (67.23)

    (Round 261) +54 = 17,533.4 / 261 = 67.178  (67.18)

    (Round 262) + 64 =17,597.4 / 262 =  67.166 (67.17)

    Try continuing from there...

  • CoolRunningx
    4,719 Posts
    Tue, Jan 17 2017 12:43 PM

    MUST  POST  TO  SAY   BIG  THANK  YOU  INDEED

    At least  i  know  now,  very  closely  when  i  will  Saturate,  and  will  enjoy the  ride,  by  having fun  along  the  way......

    Play  loads  inner  club  tournies   Alt /  matchplay   

     

    LIKE  I  SAY   MASSIVE  THANK  YOU  AND  APPRECIATE  YOUR  SUPERIOR KNOWLEDGE

     

     

    CHEERS

    BOB

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