Some people go by feel, some go by calculating their shots based on distance, Elevation, wind, use of bottom and lie factor.
For simple calculating your shots;
Head wind = wind divided by 3..... Tail wind divided by 4
Elevation divided by 3.... Bottom add 4-5 yds....
example 152 yds 10mph head 9 foot up elevation fairway lie
152 + W (10/3) 3 + Ele (9/3) 3 = 158 + bottom 4 = 162 Effective yds using bottom
Then effective yds divided by club = meter percent to use (the more accurate you are on your actual meter percent the more accurate the shot)
Example: 162 yds / 170 club = 95% meter use
Miss dinging results in loss of yardage so if you use that method to compensate for wind you will need to compensate for distance loss by slightly increasing meter percent.
This is a rough guide and other factors such as your clubs and ball distances effect it so knowing those can be crucial.
For lie factor I take my Effective yds and divide those by various factors
20 - 25% rough 0.97%
30-40 % rough 0.89%
40-50% rough 0.80%
Example: D 152, HW 10mph, ELE 9, 30-40% lie rough
D 152 + W (10/3) 3 + E (9/3) 3 + B 4= 162 / 0.89= 182 Effective rough distance (i use bottom on these shots at grass line)
Like I mentioned these are simple rough calcs that can be effectively used to get reasonable accurate distances the rest is practice adjust , practice adjust and more practice using the same equipment. Then when you change that then it is relearn and practice, practice, practice.
For a really good calculator go to SGTBilko profile and download the one from the link on that....There are two so whichever you use is up to you, The one I modified I added the factors for angled winds and elevations. Then you can add the lie factor calcs to those calculations easily .